“A scenario analysis of socio‐economic and climate changes to the nutrient loads from the Pregolya River to the Baltic Sea” - New publication online
The Pregolya River catchment is a transboundary catchment, flowing through the territory of the Kaliningrad Oblast (Russia) and its main tributaries (the Angrapa and Lava) originate in the Warminsko-Mazurskie and Podlaskie Voivodships of Poland. The catchment area is occupied by Russia and Poland in approximately equal proportions. In addition, a small part of the Pregolya River catchment (about 0.5%) is in the territory of Lithuania. The transboundary aspect causes diverse social and economic conditions within the basin, because the countries sharing the catchment have different management and decision-making systems. Scientists from the BONUS SOILS2SEA project developed a homogenous methodological approach to evaluate the anthropogenic loads from different countries and their transformations and transport within the catchment.
The results are published as a deliverable report and present a scenario analysis for how nutrient emissions from the Pregolya River changed with changing climate and socio-economic conditions. The land use patterns in the Pregolya River basin and climate changes within the area, as well as supplementary monitoring activities are presented. With the aim to asses nutrient emissions from the Pregolya River under current and future climate and current and future socio-economic conditions, a local setup of the E-HYPE hydrological module (Hundecha et al. 2016) was modified for the Pregolya River Basin. As a complement, the FyrisNP nutrient emission-retention model was also setup for the region. The current emission-retention capacity of the Pregolya River basin as well as the response of the emission-retention on climate changes (four scenarios for the 2041-2060 in the South-Eastern Baltic Region) and four socio-economic scenarios (up to 2020) were assessed.
This very informative and exhaustive report and can be downloaded from the internet and it may be cited as: “Domnin D, Gorbunova J, Chubarenko B, Donnely C., Capel R. A scenario analysis of socio economic and climate changes to the nutrient loads from the Pregolya River to the Baltic Sea. Soils2Sea Deliverable 5.2. Atlantic Branch of P.P.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology ofRussian Academy of Sciences, Kaliningrad, February 2017, www.Soils2Sea.eu” It can be downloaded here: http://soils2sea.eu/xpdf/d52_final_pregolya-river-hype_28feb2017.pdf